Content features

The following content features will be included:

• A fast-track through the book
• Worked examples
• Illustrations (including charts and spreadsheet screen-snapshots)
• Rules of thumb
• Checklists
• Clearly marked Step 1? Step 2?instructions for producing fast and accurate forecasts

1. Introduction

The usual background on whys and hows.

2. A little head scratching

Understanding the forecasting process and forecasting gurus

Why forecasting is important. How it works. Limitations. Demystifying jargon and approaches to forecasting.

3. Chopping down the forest

How forecasting techniques will help you in your business

Seeing the wood for the trees: What you need to forecast. Why it all boils down to forecasting demand/sales (or, sometimes, supply). The distinction between forecasting, estimating and projecting.

4. Canute and the Business Cycle

Why you shouldn?t ignore broader economic trends

The economy, economic indicators, economic forecasts (primarily using, rather than making). How they affect your forecast. How to select assumptions, etc

5. Playing games with your competitors

How trends in your industry affect you

Analyzing your competitors (touching on game theory). How they affect your future. How they will react to your strategy. How this will affect your forecast.

6. Ask someone who doesn?t know

Understanding the market in which you operate

Analyzing your market. Collecting data. Market research. Interpreting Surveys.

7. Lining up your ducks

Laying the groundwork for defendable and justifiable forecasts        

Groundwork; the forecasting cycle, setting assumptions and kicking off team forecasting. Coordinating and collating forecasts.

8. Consulting with sages

Forecasting techniques that rely mainly on judgement

Judgmental input, expert opinion

9. Rules of thumb that make you look smart

Find out how everything fits together for instant forecasting success

Relationships, ratio analysis, etc

10. Looking back to understand the future

How an understanding of past trends can make your forecast better

Preliminary analysis of historical data (including trends and time series analysis).

11.Runes and rulers

Producing expert forecasts with simple spreadsheets    

An initial stab at a forecast.

12. Different binoculars

Increase confidence in your forecasts with other forecasting techniques

Alternative ways of making the same forecast.

13. Expect the unexpected

How to protect your forecast again unexpected events and forecast errors

Best and worst case scenarios, etc; sensitivity analysis, quantifying risk

14. Did it happen in Monte Carlo?

How you can simulate the future to test your forecasts

Testing the forecast, simulation, models, etc

15. Forecasting specifics

How forecasting techniques can be applied to new products, projects and businesses

The application of forecasting skills to short term/long term forecasts, new products, new business units, etc. [From a sales perspective, it would be could if these could be chapter headings ? this may or may not be possible, given the constraints on length]. 

15. Presentations and promises

How to presenting and defend your forecast, and criticize others

How to present forecasts, how to make them watertight and get them approved; how to spot weaknesses in forecasts?

16. Revisiting the future

Keeping your forecast current and using it as a management tool

Working with forecasts, improving them in the light of developments, establishing why the outcome is always so different from what was expected.